Análisis de la autosuficiencia en proteínas: el caso de México en el período 1994-2021
Analysis of protein self-sufficiency: The case of Mexico in the period 1994-2021
Abstract
Objective: To analyze Mexico’s ability to satisfy its domestic demand for protein-rich food items, by means of its own productive potential, from the onset of NAFTA. Methodology: Estimation of a self-sufficiency ratio by product, unit-root tests, and linear regression. Results: Mexico exhibits average self-sufficiency levels between 0.85 to 1.15 in meat of cattle, barley, and whole milk powder, with positive trend; meat of chickens and hen eggs show levels within the same range, but with negative trend. Items such as oats, meat of pig, corn, and wheat present self-sufficiency levels below 0.85, with an erosive trend. Finally, items like rye and beans show a stationary behavior around a mean value (0.28 y 0.93, respectively). Limitations: Some items do not have complete observations; fish and shellfish are omitted from the study; differences in quality, relative prices, or item variety are not considered as the causes of imports; the effect of the exchange rate on imports is not considered. Conclusions: The focus of attention of the public debate should be on securing the stability of the protein supply, more in line with the sustainable development goals, rather than aiming at self-sufficiency by product.
Keywords:
contemporary food, food self-sufficiency, proteins, chicken, eggs, MexicoAbstract
Objective: To analyze Mexico’s ability to satisfy its domestic demand for protein-rich food items, by means of its own productive potential, from the onset of NAFTA. Methodology: Estimation of a self-sufficiency ratio by product, unit-root tests, and linear regression. Results: Mexico exhibits average self-sufficiency levels between 0.85 to 1.15 in meat of cattle, barley, and whole milk powder, with positive trend; meat of chickens and hen eggs show levels within the same range, but with negative trend. Items such as oats, meat of pig, corn, and wheat present self-sufficiency levels below 0.85, with an erosive trend. Finally, items like rye and beans show a stationary behavior around a mean value (0.28 y 0.93, respectively). Limitations: Some items do not have complete observations; fish and shellfish are omitted from the study; differences in quality, relative prices, or item variety are not considered as the causes of imports; the effect of the exchange rate on imports is not considered. Conclusions: The focus of attention of the public debate should be on securing the stability of the protein supply, more in line with the sustainable development goals, rather than aiming at self-sufficiency by product.
Keywords:
contemporary food, food self-sufficiency, proteins, chicken, eggs, MexicoDownloads
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